A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
