Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
